13-1-1 is one of the best records and highest winning percentages ever in UFC history. A winning percentage of 86.7%. You may be shocked to find out that this record does not belong to BJ Penn, Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture, Matt Hughes or other well known UFC legends. It belongs to Jon Fitch, former welterweight #1 contender who faces off against Johnny Hendricks this Friday night. Say what you want about his fighting style but it works. I don't personally enjoy his fighting style but the point is moot, Fitch wins. He is not the most exciting fighter to watch but as long as he continues to rack up victories, he will eventually work his way to another title shot.
Fitch last faced off against Penn in February in a #1 contender's match that went to a draw. He later underwent shoulder surgery that has kept him out until now. Hendricks is a two time Division 1 All American champion that has successfully transitioned over to MMA. If you read over the internet and different pieces of analysis, everyone is picking Fitch in a landslide. Vegas is also favoring him at almost 2 to 1. My question is why? Who was the last good wrestler that Fitch faced? Didn't Fitch just have problems with Penn's (a natural lightweight and jiu jitsu fighter) takedowns? Fitch has struggled with good wrestlers in the past. If you look at his last four fights, besides Penn, the guy that gave him the most trouble was Mike Pierce. Pierce is a very good wrestler and Fitch had problems with getting him down. Pierce even clipped Fitch in the waning seconds of the 3rd round in their bout but didn't have enough time to finish him.
Fitch is a very competent fighter on the feet but his gameplan is to take you down, control you and beat you up. If he can't do that, he is forced to stand and trade. Since losing to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 87, Fitch has faced Akihiro Gono, Paulo Thiago, Mike Pierce, Ben Saunders and Thiago Alves. With due respect to the aforementioned fighters, none of them are known for their takedown defense except for Pierce. Diego Sanchez also gave Fitch a lot of problems in a split decision loss years ago in a decision that could have gone either way. This is not meant to disrespect Fitch or his opponents but to merely look at the type of fighters he has been beating, the type of fighters he has had trouble with and try to establish a pattern.
Another opinion that comes up a lot is that Fitch is the consensus #2 welterweight and would beat anyone not named GSP. Per Sherdog's rankings of the top 10 welterweights (http://www.sherdog.com/news/rankings/5/Sherdog-Official-Mixed-Martial-Arts-Rankings-38355), here is the list: GSP, Fitch, Nick Diaz, Josh Koscheck, Jake Ellenberger, Jake Shields, Carlos Condit, Johnny Hendricks (fighting Fitch on Friday), Martin Kampmann and BJ Penn (fought to a draw in February). Fitch has only fought 2 people on this list (loss to GSP, draw to BJ). Now, COULD he beat all of these guys? Absolutely. HAS he beaten all of these guys? No. If you want to go one step further, Rick Story, Anthony Johnson, Charlie Brenneman, Ben Askren (WW champ in Bellator) and Rory MacDonald are listed from 10-15. Fitch has not faced any of these fighters either. Again, COULD he beat all of these guys? Yes but the point stands that he HAS NOT at this point in time. Granted, rankings mean next to nothing but in this context, he has only faced off against 2 of the current top 15 welterweights. Disclaimer: this isn't revisionist history and not meant to downplay Fitch's past wins. This is about right now and how he would stack up right now against the rest of the division in present time.
If Hendricks can keep this standing, I believe that he can and will land a punch that will hurt Fitch as Hendricks has very heavy hands. The question then becomes can Hendricks keep this standing? The one thing that sticks out in my mind is that Hendricks did have problems with wrestling with Story a year ago in a split decision loss. Hendricks' wrestling has not transitioned to MMA as well as other wrestlers have. But credentials wise, Hendricks is much more decorated than Fitch but you can't count out Fitch's gritty style. I do believe Hendricks is the best wrestler Fitch has faced (with the exception of GSP) and combined with the lengthy layoff and shoulder injury for Fitch, I like Hendricks in this fight.
The prediction: Hendricks wins by TKO.
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