Junior Dos Santos and the heavyweight division

Cain Velasquez captured the UFC heavyweight belt in October of 2010. He was subsequently injured and couldn't defend his title until November of 2011 against Junior Dos Santos (JDS). JDS stuffed takedowns, blocked kicks and landed a bomb that put Cain out in 64 seconds. What was odd was the hype preceding this bout. The UFC sold Cain as a fighter with "zero weaknesses" and as a dominant fighter. It was an odd way to hype the fight as Cain is a great but flawed fighter. This isn't revisionist history either...I picked Cain to beat Brock and I picked JDS to beat Cain before both bouts happened. Cain is a very predictable fighter and has proven to be vulnerable in certain areas. JDS, on the other hand, has not looked vulnerable in any of his UFC bouts to date.

Cain is a great fighter with an unlimited gas tank. He has good power and a great wrestling base. The flaw I noticed immediately is that he has poor striking defense. He gets hit A LOT. In his fight against Cheick Kongo in June of 2009, he was rocked badly three times. His wrestling base helped him survive and outlast Kongo in that bout. Even against Noguiera and Lesnar, both victories for Cain, he got hit often and hard. Against a striker land finisher ike JDS, you can't make mistakes like this. This is why I also think JDS will steamroll Alistair Overeem when they fight in May. Against Werdum in June of 2011, Werdum was consistently able to land a lot on Overeem and lost a close decision. Werdum does not hit anywhere near as hard as JDS does. And all JDS needs is one opening to land a knock out blow.

The winner of Cain and Frank Mir (per Dana White) gets the next title shot against the JDS/Overeem winner. Assuming JDS and Cain win, why would anyone assume a fight between them would go any differently? Cain doesn't have the striking to stay on the feet and JDS proved in the first fight that he could stuff Cain's takedowns. Mir's ground game against JDS would be very interesting but JDS trains under Noguiera so he should be able to hold his own on the ground and stay out of trouble. Mir has never shown a great takedown game so I'm not sure he even could get it to the ground in the first place. If it stays a striking battle, I see JDS finishing Mir as well.

I think JDS will hold the belt for a long time. He's beaten grapplers (Werdum, Struve, Gonzaga), wrestler/striker hybrids (Roy Nelson, Shane Carwin and Cain) and pure strikers (Gilbert Yvel and Mirko Cro Cop). If he takes out Overeem, that would be a win over a recent K-1 champion. With all of the hype surrounding Jose Aldo, Jon Jones and Anderson Silva (rightfully so), JDS should be getting more hype as well. He's on his way to clearing out his division in the most stacked version of the heavyweight division in history. I might be getting too ahead of myself but I see JDS taking out Overeem and then taking out the Mir/Cain winner. Obviously, anything can happen in MMA but JDS has been that dominant and shown such a diverse all around game. I find his style fascinating because it's very predictable but it's so effective. He stuffs takedowns, throws minimal kicks and looks to land bombs with his fists. He's like a Chuck Liddell 2.0. Great athlete, great chin and a finisher.

Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit:

What to say here? The hype for this has been amazing. Two fighters that are as game as they come. Both guys will be going for the finish here at all time and both have shown off ridiculous chins in the process. In the main event Saturday night, Diaz/Condit seems to be a barnburner to match all barnburners. I think Diaz holds the advantage on the ground and on the feet. Condit has great striking ability but I like Diaz’s ability to overwhelm his foe. Love the way that both guys bring it but I see Diaz overwhelming Condit to a TKO finish in the championship rounds. Fight of the year contender here (hopefully).

Fabricio Werdum vs Roy Nelson

Interesting fight. Both guys have a great ground game and both are adequate standing. It honestly seems like a tossup but when I look at Werdum’s best wins (Fedor Emelianenko, Antonio Silva, Sergei Kharitinov, Alistair Overeem) I believe they are superior to Nelson’s best wins (Brendan Schaub, Stefan Struve and an older Cro Cop). Also, as bad of a fight as Werdum/Overeem 2 was, Werdum held his own on his feet and looked good in the exchanges. Nelson, for all of his strengths, has never beaten a top ten guy. I also think Werdum’s strength of competition has been stronger than Nelson’s overall. Nelson is extremely durable and hard to finish (unless your name is Andrei Arlovski) so I like Werdum here in a unanimous decision.

Mike Pierce vs Josh Koscheck

A battle between solid welterweights. The one thing that worries me here is that Koscheck didn’t look good striking with Matt Hughes in his last fight. Granted, Kos won by first round KO so does it matter? I think so. Hughes was landing a lot of punches before Kos landed a big bomb. Pierce has a ton of power (rocked Jon Fitch big time in their fight a couple of years ago) and I don’t think Koscheck is comfortable yetwith getting punched in the eye area after GSP broke his orbital bone in December of 2010. Pierce hits harder than Hughes and I think it will show here. I think Pierce gets the finish here and I predict a  Pierce win by TKO.

Scott Jorgenson vs Renan Pegado

I like Jorgenson here big time. The only person to give Jorgenson trouble was in his championship loss to Dominic Cruz. Jorgenson seemed befuddled by Cruz’s movement but rebounded nicely with two big wins. Jorgenson is a top five guy at bantamweight and this is a good opportunity for him to showcase it here. I like Jorgenson here in a finish by stoppage. Jorgenson by TKO.

Ed Herman vs Clifford Starks

I’m kind of surprised this is on the main card to be honest. With all due respect to both fighters, I feel that Dustin Poirier (up and comer at bantamweight) should have gotten a showcase here and a chance to resonate with the viewing public. That being said, good luck to both gentleman and I see Herman winning a decision.