UFC 142: Shaun's Predictions

Jose Aldo vs Chad Mendes

Mendes will get Aldo to the ground. Mendes is one of the best wrestlers Aldo has faced. But with Aldo’s Jiu Jitsu no way Mendes will be able to keep it on the ground.  Aldo has the advantage if this fight stays standing and can get off his back. Mendes only has 4 finishes in his career and I don’t think that he will be able to finish Aldo.  Mendes is not going to be able to out strike Aldo, and Aldo has a 4 inch reach advantage. For me this could be fight of the night.

Prediction: Aldo TKO Rd 3

Vitor Belfort vs Anthony Johnson

This is a tough fight to call. With Johnson’s athleticism and Belfort’s explosiveness I think it’s going to be about getting out of the first round.  If Johnson can get out of the first round without too much damage he has a shot of a TKO or grinding out a decision victory on the ground.  But getting out of the first round without damage in RIO fighting Belfort might be next to impossible.

Prediction: Belfort via TKO in round 1.

Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Massenzio

Massenzio is a good ground fighter but Palhares is an absolute wrecking machine on the ground. Massenzio will want to keep the fight standing.  But I don’t think that Massenzio can avoid Palhares for 3 rounds.

Prediction: Palhares via submission round 1.

Erick Silva vs Carlo Prater

Silva is a black belt in both jiu-jitsu and judo and has 7 submissions out of his 13 career wins. In his UFC debut it was his striking that earned him a win over Luis Ramos where Silva looked like a legitimate future title contender. Prater is a veteran with 40 fights under his belt, but this is his first time in the UFC, taking the fight on short notice. I don’t think this is a good matchup for Prater. Silva is stronger, younger and this is a chance for him to showcase his skills.

Prediction: Silva via TKO round 3.

Edson Barboza vs Terry Etim

Barboza brings to the table unorthodox striking and an outstanding Muay Thai background causing him to be very hard to stand with. Etim is a solid striker and very good submission fighter. He’s not an upper level wrestler, per se so I’m not sure how easy it will be for him to implement his ground game. If Etim can get this fight to the ground for an extended amount of time he has a chance. But I see Barboza staying on his feet and relying on his striking.

Prediction: Barboza via decision.

UFC 141: Shaun's Predictions

Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes

Phan is known for his hard hitting and stand up. Hettes hasn’t yet shown that he can stand with any of his opponents.  The good news is that all nine of his fights have resulted in a submission victory, so he has proven  to be a serious threat on the ground. Two very different skill sets in this fight. If Phan can keep it standing its his fight to lose.

Prediction: Phan by Round 2 TKO

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Matyushenko brings the experience and Gustafsson brings the speed and stand-up to finish this fight. I see both guys going for it early and swinging for the fences. I’m really looking forward to this fight.

Prediction: Gustafsson by Round 2 TKO 

Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks

Fitch is going for the take-down, its not a matter of if but when. If this becomes a grappling battle then Fitch has the upper hand.  But if Hendricks can keep from being taken down he has a chance.  I just envision a three round grueling decision.

Prediction: Fitch by Unanimous Decision

Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone

Cerrone and Diaz are both submission artists, yet I don’t see this going to the ground. I expect a slug-fest and potentially a fight of the night because I don’t see them finishing each other.

Prediction: Cerrone by Unanimous Decision

Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem

When you say Brock Lesnar I see unstoppable double leg take downs. When you say Alistair Overeem I see a vicious striker. If Overeem can stuff the takedown, stay off his back and keep it in the first round, it’s his fight to lose. But I see Lesnar’s explosiveness, wrestling and conditioning being too much of a factor.

Prediction: Lesnar by Round 2 TKO