In Defense of Carlos Condit

MMA fans are a fickle bunch. I honestly believe (and it's just an opinion, I have zero facts to back this up) that the majority of MMA fans don't follow other sports and they're not used to the ups and downs that come along with following a team or fighter. That's why a fighter can lose and he was "never any good to begin with" or a fighter can win a couple in a row in devastating fashion and "he's never going to lose again." Now, I've been a Raiders fan all of my life...it's been a disaster for the most part but I've stayed loyal and will continue to stay loyal. Just because they have a bad season doesn't mean I can just jump to another team. Sports don't work that way. That being said, the level of hate that Condit has been getting lately is baffling.

Carlos Condit has 28 victories against 5 losses. Of those 28 victories, 26 (!) have been finished by either submission, TKO or KO. That's an insane finishing percentage. The 2 guys he didn't finish are Diaz and Jake Ellenberger. Diaz has been proven impossible to finish lately and Ellenberger is a top 3 welterweight in the world. These guys are not scrubs that he is fighting against. Most of the hate seems to be coming to him for 2 things. First, his fighting strategy against Nick Diaz was, to be honest, a letdown. Secondly, his decision to wait for GSP and not defend his interim title in the meantime has also ruffled some feathers in the MMA community.

Let's tackle the Diaz/Condit matchup first. Full disclosure: I was 100% rooting for Diaz in that fight. That being said, I scored the fight for Diaz 48-47. I scored rounds 1, 2 and 5 for Nick. Condit has been criticized for his strategy of running away from Diaz to then reset in the middle of the Octagon. My question is what else was he supposed to do??? Diaz likes to walk a guy down, trap him against the cage and start throwing bombs. Against BJ Penn, it worked because BJ would not get off the cage and his ego (plus his lack of cardio) wouldn't allow him to fight smart. While I personally didn't like the running Condit did at times, he had a great strategy and it worked. If anything, we should be blaming Diaz for never adjusting or not trying to get the fight to the ground until late in the 5th round. Hell, I enjoyed the fight, I just thought the wrong man won but I can honestly see a decision for either guy because the fight was hard to score. When fighters fight for points (I like ya Condit but you were point fighting against Diaz) it is confusing to score because what scores more? Jabs? Minor leg kicks? Walking a guy down? Takedowns? It's a kink in MMA that needs to be worked out and hasn't been yet. With due respect to Frankie Edgar, many of his recent fights have been almost impossible to score because of this.

Moving on, the second issue Condit is getting flack for is he has repeatedly stated his preference is to wait for GSP to get healthy. This is simple. Condit is a father and a husband who provides for his family. If Condit fights Ellenberger in the meantime, that show will top out around 400,000 ppv buys. If he fights GSP, that fight will approach 1 million guys. While I'm not privy to Condit's pay scale, my guess is that this is AT LEAST a difference of $500,000 of income for Condit. More ppv buys means more sponsorship $$ for Condit, more ppv buys means more $$ for Condit from the UFC and he will most likely get a huge discretionary bonus from the UFC if he pulls out the win. Fighters need to look out for themselves and their careers at the same time they are looking for the best challenges. What is telling about this situation is that Dana and Lorenzo have put zero public pressure on Condit to fight in the meantime. They agree with his decision and any of us would do the same thing if we were in Condit's place.

And just a quick tangent: I wanted to do a quick rundown of Condit's last 5 fights. He fought Ellenberger to a split decision victory in a wild brawl. He then rallied back and stopped Rory MacDonald via TKO, the Canadian's first and only loss in his career to date. He then became the first person to KO Dan Hardy in MMA competition. After that fight, he knocked out Dong Hyun Kim with a flying knee, which (again) is the first and only loss of Kim's career to date. And obviously the Diaz fight in February of 2012. Just something to think about.

Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz rematch set

Just several days after defeating Nick Diaz in a UFC welterweight interim title bout, Carlos Condit has agreed to a rematch, promotion president Dana White said late Tuesday night.

"The rumor is true," White said via Twitter. "Carlos did accept the fight today."

Condit defeated Diaz by unanimous decision Saturday night at UFC 143 in Las Vegas. He used solid footwork and head movement to elude Diaz's pressure attack, while delivering counter-strikes to impress the judges.

After the scores were read, Diaz expressed disappointment with the judges' scorecards (48-47, 49-46 and 49-46) by vowing never to compete in mixed martial arts again.

"I'm not going to accept the fact that this was a loss," Diaz said. "I pushed him back the whole fight. I took him down. I think I'm done with this MMA. It's been a good time.

"I don't need this. I pushed this guy the whole fight. I landed the harder punches. He kicked me a few times."

Diaz (26-8, one no contest) wasn't the only fighter disappointed by the outcome.

Current UFC 170-pound titleholder Georges St. Pierre expressed his desire to fight Diaz and wanted him to come away victorious. St. Pierre was slated to face the Diaz-Condit winner in a unification bout later this year.

Diaz, the former Strikeforce welterweight champion, has been verbally taunting St. Pierre for months. The two were scheduled to meet in Saturday night's main event, but St. Pierre suffered a torn ACL in his right knee in December and pulled out of the fight.

St. Pierre expects to resume full training in July. He has targeted November for his return to action.

Condit (28-5) was originally scheduled to fight St. Pierre, but agreed to step aside for Diaz. That goodwill gesture did not prevent fans from criticizing Condit after the fight at Mandalay Bay Events Center.

Many mixed martial arts fans expressed their disagreement with the result, booing Condit during his postfight interview inside the Octagon.

UFC has not yet set a date or location for the Condit-Diaz rematch.

(via espn.com)

Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit:

What to say here? The hype for this has been amazing. Two fighters that are as game as they come. Both guys will be going for the finish here at all time and both have shown off ridiculous chins in the process. In the main event Saturday night, Diaz/Condit seems to be a barnburner to match all barnburners. I think Diaz holds the advantage on the ground and on the feet. Condit has great striking ability but I like Diaz’s ability to overwhelm his foe. Love the way that both guys bring it but I see Diaz overwhelming Condit to a TKO finish in the championship rounds. Fight of the year contender here (hopefully).

Fabricio Werdum vs Roy Nelson

Interesting fight. Both guys have a great ground game and both are adequate standing. It honestly seems like a tossup but when I look at Werdum’s best wins (Fedor Emelianenko, Antonio Silva, Sergei Kharitinov, Alistair Overeem) I believe they are superior to Nelson’s best wins (Brendan Schaub, Stefan Struve and an older Cro Cop). Also, as bad of a fight as Werdum/Overeem 2 was, Werdum held his own on his feet and looked good in the exchanges. Nelson, for all of his strengths, has never beaten a top ten guy. I also think Werdum’s strength of competition has been stronger than Nelson’s overall. Nelson is extremely durable and hard to finish (unless your name is Andrei Arlovski) so I like Werdum here in a unanimous decision.

Mike Pierce vs Josh Koscheck

A battle between solid welterweights. The one thing that worries me here is that Koscheck didn’t look good striking with Matt Hughes in his last fight. Granted, Kos won by first round KO so does it matter? I think so. Hughes was landing a lot of punches before Kos landed a big bomb. Pierce has a ton of power (rocked Jon Fitch big time in their fight a couple of years ago) and I don’t think Koscheck is comfortable yetwith getting punched in the eye area after GSP broke his orbital bone in December of 2010. Pierce hits harder than Hughes and I think it will show here. I think Pierce gets the finish here and I predict a  Pierce win by TKO.

Scott Jorgenson vs Renan Pegado

I like Jorgenson here big time. The only person to give Jorgenson trouble was in his championship loss to Dominic Cruz. Jorgenson seemed befuddled by Cruz’s movement but rebounded nicely with two big wins. Jorgenson is a top five guy at bantamweight and this is a good opportunity for him to showcase it here. I like Jorgenson here in a finish by stoppage. Jorgenson by TKO.

Ed Herman vs Clifford Starks

I’m kind of surprised this is on the main card to be honest. With all due respect to both fighters, I feel that Dustin Poirier (up and comer at bantamweight) should have gotten a showcase here and a chance to resonate with the viewing public. That being said, good luck to both gentleman and I see Herman winning a decision.

UFC 143 Preview

GSP and the unknown

2011 was a forgettable year for Georges St Pierre. He last defended his title in April of 2011 against former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields. To say that the fight was not a good one would be an understatement. GSP fought very cautiously and with poor technique (winging overhand rights that were missing by a mile) and Shields gave up on his bread and butter (takedowns) in the first round. What we were then treated to was a sloppy kickboxing fest by both fighters, highlighted by either an eye poke or knuckle to the eye that blurred GSP’s vision. The shame is that this was a great fight card from top to bottom and Shields/GSP as a headliner left everyone at the party at my house with a bad taste in their mouth. Granted, everyone can have a bad night and this seems to be the case for both gentleman.

Dana White then decided to bring over Nick Diaz from Strikeforce to challenge GSP. After a crazy turn of events, Diaz faced BJ, Diaz re-gained his title shot, Condit lost his title shot against GSP, GSP tore his ACL and then Diaz/Condit was announced as an interim bout. Confused? You should be. Moving on, GSP will be out of action for a while. There are varying time speculations but most believe he’ll be out for all of 2012. My question is what type of division will GSP be returning to? We’ve already seen Johnny Hendricks with a spectacular knockout of Jon Fitch in 12 seconds, Jake Ellenberger with a fantastic knockout of Jake Shields in the first round and the eventual winner of Condit/Diaz for the interim strap. With due respect to GSP, what type of fighter will he be when he returns? He’ll be coming off major knee surgery, will be looking at roughly a year and a half out of the cage and will (obviously) be a year and a half older. I’m not convinced he’ll have the same explosiveness that he had prior to the surgery and I believe ring rust will play a major role in him struggling. GSP has become a fighter that relies on exploding through takedowns and using his footwork to avoid punches. How big of a factor will surgery on his knee play in him slowing down? Will his age (roughly 32 when he returns) also be a determining factor in his recovery time and success? That being said, if anyone could overcome these obstacles it’s GSP but at what point does Father Time take over and override your mental fortitude?

I think it’d be a shame for any fighter to face what GSP is facing but he is facing dire circumstances in his return. I’m not the biggest fan of GSP but I do hope he is able to return at 100% to defend his title. Nobody wants to see Ellenberger/Hendricks/Condit/Diaz beat a GSP that is not at full strength. Best of luck to GSP in his recovery and I can’t wait for a wide open welterweight division full of nasty fighters in 2012.

Will Cerrone/Diaz equal Condit/Diaz?

Per my predictions before UFC 141, I picked Donald Cerrone to win a decision over Nate Diaz. As we all know now, Diaz won the fight fairly easily. Honestly, Cerrone looked out of it from the start. As I watched the fight unfold, it became very clear to me that Diaz had gotten into Cerrone’s head. Instead of fighting a calculated and measured fight utilizing distance and leg kicks, Cerrone was lulled into a standup war that both Diaz brothers seem to thrive in. This fight baffled me so much that I’m now re-thinking my initial thoughts of how the Carlos Condit/Nick Diaz fight will unfold. Condit also seems to be a good style fight for Diaz. The pre-fight (and during) sh** talking and antics by Diaz seemed to get Cerrone fired up and pulled him out of his fighting style.

It’s been noted many times that both of the Diaz’s struggle with wrestlers. Nick had problems in losses to with Sean Sherk, Diego Sanchez and Karo Parisyian (a judo player who also excels in takedowns). Nate has recently had troubles in losses to Joe Stevenson, Dong Hyun Kim and Clay Guida. That being said, Nate landed an astounding 258 strikes in the three round war that he was in with Cerrone. The main difference in my opinion is that Cerrone never shot in for a takedown, even though Greg Jackson was pleading for him to between rounds. With no threat of a takedown, Diaz was able to stalk Cerrone and land punches at an alarming rate.

And so this leads us to Condit/Diaz. Condit is a great striker no doubt but he doesn’t seem to have a great wrestling base. If there is no threat of a takedown, shouldn’t we expect a similar fight to Diaz/Cerrone? Aren’t these fights very similar on paper? Granted, Condit is very dangerous and can win this fight but this now seems like Diaz’s fight to lose. Neither man will gas but Diaz’s volume punching and gas tank seemed to overwhelm past opponents and break them down. I’m not going on the record as of yet but this now clearly seems to be a great stylistic matchup for Diaz. I don’t believe Condit will want to go to the ground with him so this seems to be a likely stand up war. Can Condit resist the urge to brawl? Will he fight in control and measured? Can Diaz also get in Condit's head pre-fight? I guess we will find out soon what the older brother from Stockton has up his sleeve.