Per my predictions before UFC 141, I picked Donald Cerrone to win a decision over Nate Diaz. As we all know now, Diaz won the fight fairly easily. Honestly, Cerrone looked out of it from the start. As I watched the fight unfold, it became very clear to me that Diaz had gotten into Cerrone’s head. Instead of fighting a calculated and measured fight utilizing distance and leg kicks, Cerrone was lulled into a standup war that both Diaz brothers seem to thrive in. This fight baffled me so much that I’m now re-thinking my initial thoughts of how the Carlos Condit/Nick Diaz fight will unfold. Condit also seems to be a good style fight for Diaz. The pre-fight (and during) sh** talking and antics by Diaz seemed to get Cerrone fired up and pulled him out of his fighting style.
It’s been noted many times that both of the Diaz’s struggle with wrestlers. Nick had problems in losses to with Sean Sherk, Diego Sanchez and Karo Parisyian (a judo player who also excels in takedowns). Nate has recently had troubles in losses to Joe Stevenson, Dong Hyun Kim and Clay Guida. That being said, Nate landed an astounding 258 strikes in the three round war that he was in with Cerrone. The main difference in my opinion is that Cerrone never shot in for a takedown, even though Greg Jackson was pleading for him to between rounds. With no threat of a takedown, Diaz was able to stalk Cerrone and land punches at an alarming rate.
And so this leads us to Condit/Diaz. Condit is a great striker no doubt but he doesn’t seem to have a great wrestling base. If there is no threat of a takedown, shouldn’t we expect a similar fight to Diaz/Cerrone? Aren’t these fights very similar on paper? Granted, Condit is very dangerous and can win this fight but this now seems like Diaz’s fight to lose. Neither man will gas but Diaz’s volume punching and gas tank seemed to overwhelm past opponents and break them down. I’m not going on the record as of yet but this now clearly seems to be a great stylistic matchup for Diaz. I don’t believe Condit will want to go to the ground with him so this seems to be a likely stand up war. Can Condit resist the urge to brawl? Will he fight in control and measured? Can Diaz also get in Condit's head pre-fight? I guess we will find out soon what the older brother from Stockton has up his sleeve.
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